Peak Oil and Food
"The End of Oil." "Peak Oil." We hear these terms increasingly these days; on the TV news and in the papers. But what do they really mean? What is "Peak Oil"? When will it happen? How will the end of oil affect us? What will our civilization look like when we run out of oil? I have given this some thought, and it's not a pretty picture. I will talk briefly on what "Peak Oil" is, then look at one of the many ways in which it will affect us: our food supplies.
"Peak Oil" can be looked at in two different ways: the peak of discovery of new oil supplies, or the peak of oil production. When more oil is discovered, we have additional reserves to fill our energy needs. When the rate at which we discover new oil fields is decreasing, and we are no longer finding new oil supplies at the rate at which we are consuming oil, we say discovery has peaked. Then we develop the new oil fields we have found, drilling additional wells and pumping the oil out of the ground. As the oil field is depleted, the oil becomes more difficult to recover, and the production rate "peaks", then drops. The production rate gradually decreases until eventually no more oil can be removed from that particular oil field. The rate of discovery of new oil reserves in the United States peaked in the 1930's, and oil production in the United States peaked in the 1970's. World-wide oil discovery peaked in the 1960's. When will world-wide oil production peak? Some scientists believe it already has, others feel it has not peaked yet, but will soon. In any case, there is wide agreement that peak production of oil worldwide will occur before the end of this decade. Once that point is reached, unless we drastically reduce our demand for oil, the oil production rate will not be enough to keep up with the demand, and shortages will occur. Prices will rise. Nations will compete for what oil remains, even going to war over oil. Eventually there will be no oil available to anyone, at any price - the End of Oil.
I would now like to consider the impact that reduced oil supplies and the eventual end of oil will have on our food supplies, and how that might affect our civilization.
Our current agricultural methods are, for all practical purposes, a process of turning oil into food. Food production is dependent on oil at every stage between preparing the ground for planting and serving the food at our dinner tables.
Let's examine the part oil plays in the production of wheat, for example. The farms that grow wheat are highly dependent on oil. First, an oil-powered tractor is used to plow the field, then the same oil-powered tractor is used to plant the seed. While the wheat is growing, agricultural chemicals such as fertilizers and pesticides will be applied, perhaps several times. Many of these agricultural chemicals are derived from oil, and again, they will be applied with oil-powered tractors.
At the end of the growing season, the wheat will be harvested by those same tractors, still running on oil. It will then be loaded into trucks or railroad cars for transport to the mills for processing. Trucks and trains, of course, both require oil. After the raw wheat is processed into breakfast cereal, bread, or flour, the finished product is packaged and loaded into oil-powered trucks or trains for delivery to the stores, and offered for sale to consumers like you and I. We then drive our oil-powered cars to the stores, buy the food products we need, and drive home in our oil-powered cars.
So what do we do when there isn't enough oil for our tractors, fertilizers, pesticides, trucks, trains and cars? How many of us are able to supply our own food needs? How many of us grow significant quantities of food in our gardens, or keep cows in our backyards? What are we going to eat?
Let's carry this a little further, by having a look at what the lack of oil-provided energy will mean to us in another area. Suppose that you live in a northern city where winters are cold. Suppose further that your house is heated with oil, and your electricity is generated at an oil-fired powerplant. It's the middle of winter, and, having no oil, you have no electricity and no heat. Your children are freezing to death. What would you do to keep your children from freezing to death? At first, maybe you'd cut the trees in your yard and burn them to keep warm. When your own trees were exhausted, maybe you'd cut the trees in the local park. And after that, then what? Cut and burn your neighbor's trees? Tear down your neighbor's house and burn it to keep your children from freezing to death? What would your neighbor do to keep you from tearing down and burning his house? Kill you? What would you do to keep your neighbor from tearing down and burning your house to keep his children from freezing to death? Would you kill him?
While you're pondering that, remember that your children aren't just freezing to death, they're starving to death, too. How are you going to feed them? You've already burned your neighbor's house to keep your children warm; will you now kill your neighbor to feed your children? Would your neighbor kill you to feed his starving children? Are you sure?
OK, you're not willing to burn your neighbor's house to keep your children warm, and you're not willing to kill your neighbor to feed your starving children. Instead, you're going to move to another region with a warmer climate, a long growing season, and plenty of rain for your crops - your new "paradise". First of all, how are you going to get there? Drive there in your car? No oil. Take the bus? No oil. Take a train? Sorry, no oil. Fly there in an airplane? Again, no oil. And what will happen if you do arrive at your destination? Do you think others won't have the same idea? How many refugees do you think that the natives of your new paradise will allow in? What if they are already overburdened with refugees when you get there? Will they send you away? Kill you to keep you from spoiling their paradise? Will you kill them and forcibly take your own piece of paradise? What if you already live in "paradise"? What will you do when the refugees show up in your paradise?
If you're not sure what you'd do in these circumstances, I suggest you watch the news on TV tonight, or read the evening paper, and find the solutions others have found to their problems of overcrowding and insufficient resources. You'll find that they are doing exactly the things I've described here.
And what are we going to do about it? I don't know what we actually will do, but I know what we must do: decrease our consumption of oil and other resources. Demand that car manufacturers make more fuel efficient cars. Require recycling. Insist that our government begin research to develop alternative energy sources, research on a scale not seen since the "Manhattan Project" to develop the atomic bomb or the "Apollo Project" to put a man on the moon. Or plant gardens in our backyards, get a couple of cows, and stock up on guns and ammunition. Think about it. What's it going to be?
"Peak Oil" can be looked at in two different ways: the peak of discovery of new oil supplies, or the peak of oil production. When more oil is discovered, we have additional reserves to fill our energy needs. When the rate at which we discover new oil fields is decreasing, and we are no longer finding new oil supplies at the rate at which we are consuming oil, we say discovery has peaked. Then we develop the new oil fields we have found, drilling additional wells and pumping the oil out of the ground. As the oil field is depleted, the oil becomes more difficult to recover, and the production rate "peaks", then drops. The production rate gradually decreases until eventually no more oil can be removed from that particular oil field. The rate of discovery of new oil reserves in the United States peaked in the 1930's, and oil production in the United States peaked in the 1970's. World-wide oil discovery peaked in the 1960's. When will world-wide oil production peak? Some scientists believe it already has, others feel it has not peaked yet, but will soon. In any case, there is wide agreement that peak production of oil worldwide will occur before the end of this decade. Once that point is reached, unless we drastically reduce our demand for oil, the oil production rate will not be enough to keep up with the demand, and shortages will occur. Prices will rise. Nations will compete for what oil remains, even going to war over oil. Eventually there will be no oil available to anyone, at any price - the End of Oil.
I would now like to consider the impact that reduced oil supplies and the eventual end of oil will have on our food supplies, and how that might affect our civilization.
Our current agricultural methods are, for all practical purposes, a process of turning oil into food. Food production is dependent on oil at every stage between preparing the ground for planting and serving the food at our dinner tables.
Let's examine the part oil plays in the production of wheat, for example. The farms that grow wheat are highly dependent on oil. First, an oil-powered tractor is used to plow the field, then the same oil-powered tractor is used to plant the seed. While the wheat is growing, agricultural chemicals such as fertilizers and pesticides will be applied, perhaps several times. Many of these agricultural chemicals are derived from oil, and again, they will be applied with oil-powered tractors.
At the end of the growing season, the wheat will be harvested by those same tractors, still running on oil. It will then be loaded into trucks or railroad cars for transport to the mills for processing. Trucks and trains, of course, both require oil. After the raw wheat is processed into breakfast cereal, bread, or flour, the finished product is packaged and loaded into oil-powered trucks or trains for delivery to the stores, and offered for sale to consumers like you and I. We then drive our oil-powered cars to the stores, buy the food products we need, and drive home in our oil-powered cars.
So what do we do when there isn't enough oil for our tractors, fertilizers, pesticides, trucks, trains and cars? How many of us are able to supply our own food needs? How many of us grow significant quantities of food in our gardens, or keep cows in our backyards? What are we going to eat?
Let's carry this a little further, by having a look at what the lack of oil-provided energy will mean to us in another area. Suppose that you live in a northern city where winters are cold. Suppose further that your house is heated with oil, and your electricity is generated at an oil-fired powerplant. It's the middle of winter, and, having no oil, you have no electricity and no heat. Your children are freezing to death. What would you do to keep your children from freezing to death? At first, maybe you'd cut the trees in your yard and burn them to keep warm. When your own trees were exhausted, maybe you'd cut the trees in the local park. And after that, then what? Cut and burn your neighbor's trees? Tear down your neighbor's house and burn it to keep your children from freezing to death? What would your neighbor do to keep you from tearing down and burning his house? Kill you? What would you do to keep your neighbor from tearing down and burning your house to keep his children from freezing to death? Would you kill him?
While you're pondering that, remember that your children aren't just freezing to death, they're starving to death, too. How are you going to feed them? You've already burned your neighbor's house to keep your children warm; will you now kill your neighbor to feed your children? Would your neighbor kill you to feed his starving children? Are you sure?
OK, you're not willing to burn your neighbor's house to keep your children warm, and you're not willing to kill your neighbor to feed your starving children. Instead, you're going to move to another region with a warmer climate, a long growing season, and plenty of rain for your crops - your new "paradise". First of all, how are you going to get there? Drive there in your car? No oil. Take the bus? No oil. Take a train? Sorry, no oil. Fly there in an airplane? Again, no oil. And what will happen if you do arrive at your destination? Do you think others won't have the same idea? How many refugees do you think that the natives of your new paradise will allow in? What if they are already overburdened with refugees when you get there? Will they send you away? Kill you to keep you from spoiling their paradise? Will you kill them and forcibly take your own piece of paradise? What if you already live in "paradise"? What will you do when the refugees show up in your paradise?
If you're not sure what you'd do in these circumstances, I suggest you watch the news on TV tonight, or read the evening paper, and find the solutions others have found to their problems of overcrowding and insufficient resources. You'll find that they are doing exactly the things I've described here.
And what are we going to do about it? I don't know what we actually will do, but I know what we must do: decrease our consumption of oil and other resources. Demand that car manufacturers make more fuel efficient cars. Require recycling. Insist that our government begin research to develop alternative energy sources, research on a scale not seen since the "Manhattan Project" to develop the atomic bomb or the "Apollo Project" to put a man on the moon. Or plant gardens in our backyards, get a couple of cows, and stock up on guns and ammunition. Think about it. What's it going to be?
posted by Jim Allyn at 5/25/2005 10:38:00 AM
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