In A Nutshell

Why does the U.S. spend as much on defense as the rest of the world combined? Why is the current administration talking about creating new nuclear, chemical, biological and genotype-specific weapons? Why are we in Iraq? Is it all about the oil?

Here it is in a nutshell, with the numbers. The world production (and consumption) of oil is currently about 80 million barrels per day, of which the U.S. consumes 20 million barrels per day. It is widely believed that oil production will never rise much, if any, above current levels - the oil fields are being depleted, we're not finding new oil fields, we just can't pump it out any faster. Oil consumption cannot rise above current levels.

The oil consumption of China, with its 1.3 billion people, is only 5.8 million barrels per day. But Chinese people want the same standard of living we have in the U.S. They want cars, they want modern agriculture, they want all the goods that Americans enjoy. To get that, they will have to consume the same amount of oil per person that we do. That would increase Chinese oil consumption to 90 million barrels per day, more than the entire world is currently producing, and likely more than the world can produce.

Is China going to remain at its current standard of living just so that we can keep our current standard of living? Doesn't seem likely, does it? What will China do to get that oil for itself? What will we do to keep it for ourselves?

Although China will be America's biggest competitor for the world's oil, other countries will want their share of the oil, too. There are 1.1 billion people in India, who currently consume only 2.2 million barrels per day. When the citizens of India raise their standard of living and their oil consumption to the levels we are used to, they will consume about 75 million barrels per day, just a little less than total current world production. Will they be willing to remain at their current standard of living just so that we can keep our standard of living? What will India do to get that oil for itself? What will we do to keep it for ourselves?

So far, I've only mentioned the two most populous nations of the world. But China and India combined are only a third of the world's population. If everybody in the entire world raises their standard of living, and thereby their oil consumption, to our levels, the planet will require 444.5 million barrels of oil per day. We don't have it, and we're not going to have it.

I ask again, why does the U.S. spend as much on defense as the rest of the world combined? Why is the current administration talking about creating new nuclear, chemical, biological and genotype-specific weapons? Why are we in Iraq? Is it all about the oil? What do you think?